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OK0NAG > SOLAR    22.12.11 00:05l 229 Lines 7602 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Dec 21 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z

to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1376 (N20W59) produced

the largest flare of the period, a C6/Sn at 20/2250Z.  It was

classified as a Dsi type group with Beta magnetic characteristics. 

Regions 1382 (S14W10) and 1384 (N14E52) produced the majority of the

activity over the past 24 hours, mostly low level C-class flares. 

These regions were classified as Dsc and Cao regions, respectively,

both with Beta magnetic characteristics. There were several CMEs

observed on LASCO C2 imagery, none of which were Earth directed.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain

low with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next three

days (22-24 December).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to remain at quiet levels for the next three days (22-24

December).

III.  Event Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           21 Dec 145

Predicted   22 Dec-24 Dec  145/140/140

90 Day Mean        21 Dec 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec  005/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec  003/003

Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/05/05

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    05/05/05



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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