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OK0NAG > SOLAR    22.12.11 15:44l 103 Lines 3628 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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_____________________________________________________________________

Solar-activity forecast for the period Dec 23 - 29, 2011

Activity level: mostly low
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 120-150 f.u.
Flares: weak (5-15/day), middle (0-1/period
Relative sunspot number: in the range 50-90

Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
(RWC Prague
_____________________________________________________________________

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period Dec 23 to Dec 29, 2011


quiet: Dec 23, 28 and 29
quiet to unsettled: Dec 24 and 27
unsettled: 0
unsettled to active: Dec 26
active: Dec 25
minor storm: 0
major storm: 0
severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary: 
            geomagnetic field was quiet from Dec 15 to 20, 
            quiet to unsettled on Dec 21. 
 

RWC Prague, Geophysical Institute Prague, Geomagnetic Dept, 
Czech Republic
e-mail: geom(at)ig.cas.cz 
_____________________________________________________________________

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period of one solar rotation

Geomagnetic field during the following solar rotation should be:
         quiet: Dec 25, Jan 2 - 4, 10 - 15
         mostly quiet: Dec 23, 29, Jan 1, 5, 9
         quiet to unsettled: Dec 24, 28, Jan 17
         quiet to active: Dec 26, 30 - 31, Jan 7, 18
         quiet to minor storm: -
         quiet to major storm: -
         quiet to severe storm: -
         mostly unsettled: Dec 27, Jan 6, 8, 16
         unsettled to active: -
         unsettled to minor storm: -
         minor to major storm: -

Survey:  quiet: Dec 13 - 18
         mostly quiet: Dec 19 - 20
         quiet to unsettled: Dec 21
         quiet to active: -
         quiet to minor storm: -
         quiet to major storm: -
         quiet to severe storm: -
         mostly unsettled: -
         unsettled to active: -
         unsettled to minor storm: -
         minor to major storm: -

   Notices:
        High probability of changes in solar wind which may caused
        changes in magnetosphere and ionosphere is expected about
        Dec 23, 26, 28. 30, Jan (6,) 8, 14, (15 - 16).
        Standard error of our forecasting method should be one day since

        fourth day, but usually slightly better for day one
        to three.
        Days in brackets refer to a lower probability of possible
        activity enhancements depending on previous development
        on the Sun.

F. K. Janda (OK1HH), Czech Propagation Interested Group
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
_____________________________________________________________________





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