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OK0NAG > SOLAR    23.12.11 00:05l 229 Lines 7602 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Dec 22 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z

to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1381 (S18W28) produced

a C5/Sf flare at 22/0208Z.  This flare was accompanied by Type II

(921 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions with a CME.  A faint CME was

observed in STEREO-A COR2 imagery at 22/0509Z.  Plane of sky

analysis suggested a speed of roughly 150 km/s for the ejecta.  

This event is not expected to be geoeffective.  Intermediate spots

diminished in Regions 1384 (N12E37) and 1376 (N18W72) while Regions

1382( S19W21) and 1383 (N03E25) both showed signs of growth.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain

low for the next three days (23-25 December), with a slight chance

for an M-class event.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for the next three days

(23-25 December).

III.  Event Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec

Class M    15/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           22 Dec 146

Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec  145/140/140

90 Day Mean        22 Dec 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  005/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec  005/002

Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/05/05

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    05/05/05



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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