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OK0NAG > SOLAR    24.12.11 00:07l 217 Lines 7128 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Dec 23 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z

to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The largest of the three

C-class flares observed during the period was a C3 from Region 1376

(N16W84) as it prepared to rotate off the visible disk.  Rotating

onto the disk was new Region 1386 (S16E72), an Hsx type group with

alpha magnetic characteristics.  The remaining regions were

magnetically simple and quiescent.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain

low with a slight chance for an M-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for the next three days

(24-26 December).

III.  Event Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec

Class M    10/05/05

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           23 Dec 138

Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec  140/140/140

90 Day Mean        23 Dec 144

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  004/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec  000/001

Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/05/10

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           10/10/20

Major-severe storm    05/05/10



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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