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OK0NAG > SOLAR    03.01.12 00:05l 219 Lines 7219 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2012 Jan 02 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z

to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A few nominal C-class flares

occurred. New Region 1391 (N13E81) was numbered today as it rotated

around the East limb.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low to low with a slight chance for an M-class flare for the next 3

days (3-5 January).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be mostly quiet for day 1 (3 January). Activity is

forecast to increase to mostly unsettled conditions with possible

active periods on day 2 (4 January) with an anticipated solar sector

boundary crossing (SSBC). Conditions should return to mostly quiet

on day 3 (5 January).

III.  Event Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan

Class M    20/20/20

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           02 Jan 135

Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan  135/140/140

90 Day Mean        02 Jan 144

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  004/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan  000/002

Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  006/005-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/10/05

Minor storm           01/05/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           10/15/10

Major-severe storm    05/15/05



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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