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OK0NAG > SOLAR    04.01.12 00:05l 221 Lines 7346 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2012 Jan 03 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z

to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low to low for the next 3 days (4-6 January).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active conditions across

all latitudes. The activity was the result of sporadic polarity

shifts accompanied  by a period of extended southward Bz.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled days 1-2 (4-5 January) as

fluctuating polarity is expected to continue prior to a forecasted

solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) on day 2. On day 3 (6

January), the onset of a coronal high speed steam (CH HSS) is

expected to produce unsettled and active conditions with a minor

storm possible at onset.

III.  Event Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           03 Jan 135

Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan  140/140/140

90 Day Mean        03 Jan 144

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  004/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan  005/007

Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  007/008-007/008-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/25/50

Minor storm           05/05/30

Major-severe storm    01/01/05

B.  High Latitudes

Active                25/25/40

Minor storm           20/20/50

Major-severe storm    05/05/10



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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