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OK0NAG > SOLAR    05.01.12 00:06l 217 Lines 7212 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2012 Jan 04 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z

to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Regions 1386 (S17W87) and 1392

(N20W04) each produced C1 x-ray flares.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low to low for the next 3 days (5-7 January).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet on day 1 (5 January). Conditions are expected

to increase on day 2 (6 January), with unsettled conditions possible

associated with a forecasted solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC).

On day 3 (7 January), the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream

(CH HSS) is expected to produce unsettled and active conditions,

with a possible minor storm at high latitudes.

III.  Event Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           04 Jan 136

Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan  140/140/135

90 Day Mean        04 Jan 144

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  009/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan  000/003

Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  004/005-007/008-013/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/10/30

Minor storm           01/01/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           20/20/35

Major-severe storm    10/10/40



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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