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OK0NAG > SOLAR    06.01.12 23:07l 233 Lines 7692 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2012 Jan 06 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z

to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24

hours. The largest event of the period was a C2 flare at 06/1125Z

from Region 1392 (N19W32). A new emerging flux region was numbered

today as Region 1394 (N18E42).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for the next

three days (07-09 January).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been predominantly quiet levels for the

past 24 hours. Solar wind characteristics, as measured by the ACE

spacecraft, indicate the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream

(CH HSS) with solar wind speeds increasing from around 330 - 450

km/s.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days (07-08

January) as the effects the CH HSS wane. A return to mostly quiet

levels is expected on day three (09 January).

III.  Event Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           06 Jan 136

Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan  135/130/130

90 Day Mean        06 Jan 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  006/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan  003/004

Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  009/010-010/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/30/10

Minor storm           10/10/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                40/40/15

Minor storm           20/20/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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