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OK0NAG > SOLAR    10.01.12 00:03l 235 Lines 7766 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2012 Jan 09 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z

to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Regions 1391 (N12W12), 1393

(N15W57), and 1395 (N22E45) produced low level C-class flares. 

Possible umbral separation was observed in the leading spot of

Region 1391 and the trailing spot of Region 1393.  Both regions have

Beta-Gamma magnetic classifications.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue

at low levels with a chance for M-class activity from Regions 1391

and 1393.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.  Solar wind speed at the ACE

spacecraft continues to be slightly elevated around 420 - 440 km/s

with the IMF Bz not varying much beyond +/- 5 nT.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be mostly quiet on days 1 - 2 (10 - 11 January).  A

coronal hole high speed stream is expected to move into geoeffective

position on day 3 (12 January) causing quiet to unsettled conditions

with a chance for active periods.

III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan

Class M    25/25/25

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           09 Jan 142

Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan  140/140/135

90 Day Mean        09 Jan 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  005/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan  007/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  004/005-004/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/05/20

Minor storm           01/01/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           10/10/25

Major-severe storm    05/05/20



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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