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OK0NAG > SOLAR    11.01.12 00:06l 221 Lines 7288 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2012 Jan 10 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z

to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1393 (N17W70) produced

the largest flare; a C1 at 10/0153Z.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

with a chance for an isolated M-flare from Regions 1391 (N12W25) and

1393.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.  Solar wind speed at the ACE

spacecraft continues to be slightly elevated at approximately 420 -

460 km/s with the IMF Bz not varying much beyond +/- 5 nT.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (11 January).  On days 2 - 3

(12 - 13 January) quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with a

chance for active periods as a coronal hole high speed stream is

expected to become geoeffective.

III.  Event Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan

Class M    25/25/25

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           10 Jan 129

Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan  130/125/120

90 Day Mean        10 Jan 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  007/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan  003/004

Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  004/005-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/20/20

Minor storm           01/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           10/25/25

Major-severe storm    05/20/20



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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