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OK0NAG > SOLAR    12.01.12 00:03l 209 Lines 6825 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2012 Jan 11 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z

to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Nominal C-class flares

occurred.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low to low with a chance for a M-class flare for the next 3 days

(12-14 January).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

forecast to be mostly quiet on day 1 (12 January). Conditions are

expected to increase for days 2-3 (13-14 January), with possible

unsettled and active conditions due to a high speed stream (HSS)

from a coronal hole (CH).

III.  Event Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan

Class M    25/25/25

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           11 Jan 120

Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan  120/120/120

90 Day Mean        11 Jan 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  005/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan  000/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  003/005-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/10/10

Minor storm           01/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/15/15

Minor storm           01/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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