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OK0NAG > SOLAR    13.01.12 00:03l 225 Lines 7432 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2012 Jan 12 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z

to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A long duration C2 x-ray event

began at 12/0754Z, peaked at 12/1001Z, and then persisted until

12/1216Z. It is believed that the source of the event was from

beyond the East limb. A limb event CME was observed by LASCO C2/C3

and also by the STEREO coronagraphs. The event is not believed to

have a geoeffective potential.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low to low for the next 3 days (13-15 January).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be unsettled with a chance for active conditions on days

1-2 (13-14 January) due to coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS)

effects. Conditions should return to mostly quiet levels for day 3

(15 January).

III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           12 Jan 117

Predicted   13 Jan-15 Jan  115/115/115

90 Day Mean        12 Jan 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan  005/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan  005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  007/008-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/10/05

Minor storm           05/05/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           10/10/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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