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OK0NAG > SOLAR    14.01.12 00:06l 245 Lines 8184 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2012 Jan 13 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z

to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24

hours. A filament channel eruption was observed around 12/2130Z in

the northern hemisphere around Region 1396 (N26E18). In connection

with this event, a CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 12/2136Z.

This CME appears to be non geoeffective. Two new Regions have been

numbered in the past 24 hours, Region 1397 (S20E28) and Region 1398

(N13W08). Both regions are magnetically classified as beta.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

low levels for the next three days (14 - 16 January).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the

past 24 hours. Measurements by the ACE spacecraft indicated the

arrival and continuing presence of a coronal hole high speed stream

(CH HSS). During the passage of this CH HSS, solar wind speeds

started out at around 400 km/s, peaked around 550 km/s, and were at

450 km/s, at the time of the report.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next three days

(14 - 16 January).

III.  Event Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan

Class M    05/05/05

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           13 Jan 124

Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan  130/135/135

90 Day Mean        13 Jan 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  005/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan  007/007

Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  005/005-004/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/05/05

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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