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OK0NAG > SOLAR    09.06.12 00:02l 174 Lines 9442 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1494 (S18W33) produced
a C7 flare at 08/0307Z.  The flare was accompanied by Type II and
Type IV radio emissions at 08/0305Z and 08/0308Z, respectively.  A
CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 08/0443Z emerging from the
southern hemisphere.  Analysis of LASCO and STEREO COR2 coronagraph
imagery indicated a speed of approximately 380 km/s.  A subsequent
model run suggested a glancing blow at earth late on June 12th. 
Filament eruptions were observed from the NE limb at 08/1645Z in SDO
304 imagery and at 08/1756Z in LASCO C2.  A second eruption near
N10E50 was observed in SDO 304 imagery at 08/1706Z.  The first
eruption is not expected to be geoeffective; the second is being
evaluted.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class event for the next three days
(09-11 June).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels.  Data
from the ACE spacecraft suggested the possible arrival of the CME
from 05 June around 08/0800Z.  A couple of unsettled periods
followed, but most of the day was quiet.  Wind speed at ACE declined
throughout the period and ended the day near 500 km/s.  The Bz
component of the IMF was generally neutral to slightly negative for
the first half of the day, and generally positive for the last half.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (09 June).  The CME from 06
June is expected to arrive on day 2 (10 June), bringing unsettled
conditions with a chance for an isolated active period through day 3
(11 June).
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jun 124
Predicted   09 Jun-11 Jun  125/125/130
90 Day Mean        08 Jun 117
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun  009/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun  006/005-007/010-007/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/30/30


Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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