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OK0NAG > SOLAR    20.06.12 23:01l 133 Lines 6891 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1504 (S16W77) produced
a C3 flare at 20/1628Z which was the largest event of the period. 
There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days.  There is a slight chance
for an isolated M-class flare from Region 1504 on day 1 (21 June) as
it approaches the west limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 21-23 June.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M    10/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jun 104
Predicted   21 Jun-23 Jun  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        20 Jun 119
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun  005/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05


Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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