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OK0NAG > SOLAR    01.07.12 14:13l 126 Lines 4699 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Jul 01 1211 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                       #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#


GEOALERT BRU183
UGEOA 30512 20701 0812/ 9930/
11012 21012 30012
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 01 Jul 2012 until 03 Jul 
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Jul 2012  10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Jul 2012  10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Jul 2012  10CM FLUX: 124 / AP: 012
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at active levels in the past 24 hours.

NOAA AR 11513 has produced two impulsive M flares (M1.0 peaking at 12:52

UT and M1.6 peaking at 18:32 on June 30) and three C flares within this

period. Another C flare was released by AR 11514. More C flares are
expected within the next 48 hours with a chance for an M flare,
especially from NOAA AR 11513.
Decreasing solar wind density around 16:00 UT on June 30 indicated the

transition from stream interface to the coronal hole high speed stream

itself, featuring solar wind speeds around 700 km/s. Meanwhile, the
Interplanetary Magnetic Field has stabilized around 5 nT. The
geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels (Dourbes K between

3 and 4; NOAA Kp between 3 and 4) during the past 24 hours. Quiet
geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) with isolated active periods (K

Dourbes = 4) are expected for July 1st and 2nd. A return to quiet
geomagnetic levels is likely for July 3rd.







TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 084, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20701 0812/ 30///
1//// 21240 3025/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania 
NOAA NOTE
30  1248  1252 1254 N17E21 M1.0 1N       III/3                         
 96 1513                     
30  1826  1832 1834        M1.6          III/2                         
 96 1513                     
END

UGEOR 30512 20701 0812/ 29/07 01106
10001 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50030 60011 15115 02000
10002 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60003 45009 00000
10095 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50230 60015 30614 03000
10096 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50130 60015 13917 19300
10098 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50040 60015 23814 02000
10099 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50200 60016 25315 15100
99999
USSPS 32404 30063 09132 40017 31817 21409 41012 12817 2/803 42006 
22715 24412 43042 24116 57412 44006 13915 21405 
USSPS 81202 01025 11632 44011 11615 41409 47005 12914 21407 48004 
13919 31405 45004 21415 21407 46023 23017 44522 43012 32916 41406 
UMAGF 30503 20701 1004/ 30069 1/033 23343 33433 
UMAGF 31523 20631 ///// 3000/ 1/025 23334 35444 
 
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #

# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #

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