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OK0NAG > SOLAR    04.07.12 13:44l 126 Lines 4950 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Jul 04 1142 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                       #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#


GEOALERT BRU186
UGEOA 30512 20704 1127/ 9930/
12042 20042 30042
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 04 Jul 2012 until 06 Jul 
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Jul 2012  10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Jul 2012  10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Jul 2012  10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 007
COMMENT: NOAA AR 1515 (Catania 99) produced two more M-flares today: an

M2.3 flare peaking at 04:37 UT and an M5.3 flare with peak time at 09:54

UT. Flaring activity remains high in NOAA AR 1513 (Catania 96) also with

a C9.3 flaring peaking at 20:45 UT yesterday. We expect more C-flares
from both active regions, with a good chance for another M-flare from
region 1515.
Many southwards CME's were observed in the past days linked to the
activity in NOAA AR 1515. We expect them to have only a small influence

-if any- on geomagnetic conditions. Both STEREO/COR2 coronographs
observed an earth directed CME early this morning (appearing after a
data gap in COR2-B images at 23:54 UT yesterday and in COR2-A images at

01:24 UT). A faint halo is visible in SOHO/LASCO. Due to the very slow

speed of this CME (around 250 km/s) we do not expect a significant
influence on Earth. Geomagnetic conditions will remain quiet (K=2) to
unsettled (K=3) as the effects of the coronal hole high speed winds
stream subside.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 086, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20704 1127/ 03///
10177 21462 3012/ 4//// 80006 90990
99999

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania 
NOAA NOTE
04  0428  0437 0445 S17W18 M2.3 SN   150 IV                     99 1515 
                    
END

UGEOR 30512 20704 1127/ 04/08 04108
10001 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50020 60005 41515 00000
10004 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50120 60017 40419 00000
10005 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60004 17310 00000
10006 2//// 3//// 472// 50020 60001 28515 00000
10095 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50040 60003 37114 00000
10096 2//// 3//// 4341/ 50230 60015 42517 19300
10098 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60003 32814 00000
10099 2//// 3//// 4652/ 50750 60055 31515 29600
99999
USSPS 32404 03095 08322 40009 36416 2/801 41019 41416 24409 43055 
30317 57627 45011 10820 21406 
USSPS 21305 03171 12442 41013 36715 4/801 42028 41817 41316 44088 
31716 57647 46015 10620 41408 45001 40814 0/102 
USSPS 81202 04005 10822 47009 10319 21306 44016 42217 21313 46067 
30817 57648 43004 36815 4/801 
USSPS 31405 04086 18342 01002 41515 01205 04012 40419 21317 05001 
17310 01204 06002 28515 2/901 95004 37114 21303 96023 42517 41315 
98001 32814 0/103 99075 31515 55655 
UMAGF 30503 20704 1004/ 03060 1/020 22233 32323 
UMAGF 31523 20704 ///// 0300/ 1/012 23223 33422 
 
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