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OK0NAG > SOLAR    05.07.12 14:41l 150 Lines 5973 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Jul 05 1239 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                       #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#


GEOALERT BRU187
UGEOA 30512 20705 1222/ 9930/
12052 20052 30052
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 05 Jul 2012 until 07 Jul 
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Jul 2012  10CM FLUX: 165 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Jul 2012  10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Jul 2012  10CM FLUX: 172 / AP: 010
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at active levels: twelve M-flares were

observed since our last bulletin. The largest one was an M6.1 flare,
which occurred just before sending at 11:44 UT. All these M-flares were

produced by NOAA AR 1515 (Cat 99), except for the M1.8 flare at 16:39 UT

yesterday in NOAA AR 1513 (Cat 96). We expect more flaring at M-class
level from these regions and possibly also from NOAA AR 1519 (Cat 06)
that is turning over the east limb. There is a small chance for an
X-flare from region 1515. In case of such a big flare, a proton event is

possible as this region is moving towards the west solar limb.

All CMEs associated with the M-flares were directed towards the south,

except for the one associated with the M1.8 flare in NOAA AR 1513. Both

STEREO/COR2 instruments show an earth-directed limb CME for this event

(entering the COR2-B FOV at 17:24, and the COR2-A FOV at 18:39 after a

data gap). This event is hard to see in the SOHO/LASCO images. We
estimate the speed of this CME to lie around 470 km/s. This corresponds

to an arrival at earth late on July 7 or early on July 8, at which time

unsettled (K=3) to active (K=4) geomagnetic conditions are possible. For

now, we expect quiet geomagnetic conditions to continue.



TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 077, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20705 1222/ 04///
10183 21632 3010/ 4//// 80208 91200
99999

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania 
NOAA NOTE
04  0947  0955 0957 S20W18 M5.3 2B    79                            99 
1515                     
04  1207  1224 1232 S17W29 M2.3       78 III/IV                 99 1515 
Location from Solar Monitor
04  1435  1440 1442 S18W18 M1.3 SN                                  99 
1515                     
04  1633  1639 1648 N14W34 M1.8 2N   200 III/3,V/2,II/1                
 96 1513                     
04  2203  2209 2215 S16W24 M4.6      220 II/1,III/2                    
 99 1515 Location from Solar Monitor
04  2347  2355 0002 S16W24 M1.2          IV/1                          
 99 1515 Location from Solar Monitor
05  0105  0110 0115 S18W26 M2.4 3N                                  99 
1515                     
05  0235  0242 0247 S18W27 M2.2                                     99 
1515 Location from Solarsoft
05  0325  0336 0339 S18W29 M4.7          III/1                         
 99 1515 Location from solarsoft
05  0649  0658 0705 S18W39 M1.1 1F                                  99 
1515                     
05  0740  0745 0748 S18W30 M1.3                                     99 
1515                     
END

UGEOR 30512 20705 1222/ 04/08 05108
10001 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50020 60005 41515 01000
10004 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50120 60017 40419 01000
10005 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60004 17310 04000
10006 2//// 3//// 472// 50020 60001 28515 17200
10095 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50040 60003 37114 01000
10096 2//// 3//// 4341/ 50230 60015 42517 19300
10098 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60003 32814 01000
10099 2//// 3//// 4652/ 50750 60055 31515 29710
99999
USSPS 32404 04067 11232 40012 37615 2/801 41018 42616 21410 43061 
31417 27642 45007 40319 21407 46001 17509 0/102 
USSPS 21305 04182 12042 47002 16809 0/102 48003 27914 0/101 44036 
32107 57859 42019 43515 51305 46005 41118 51303 
UMAGF 30503 20705 1004/ 04064 1/011 21221 31222 
UMAGF 31523 20705 ///// 0400/ 1/010 23323 33122 
 
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

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