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OK0NAG > SOLAR    07.07.12 15:13l 152 Lines 6362 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Jul 07 1307 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                       #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#


GEOALERT BRU189
UGEOA 30512 20707 1251/ 9930/
12072 21072 37072
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 07 Jul 2012 until 09 Jul 
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Jul 2012  10CM FLUX: 158 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Jul 2012  10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 024
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jul 2012  10CM FLUX: 154 / AP: 025
COMMENT: NOAA AR 1515 (Cat 99) was the source region of an X1.1 flare
with peak time 23:08 UT on July 6th. STEREO-A/EUVI 195 and PROBA2/SWAP

data show an EUV wave associated to this event. A CME towards the
southwest is visible in the SOHO/LASCO images starting at 23:24 UT. This

CME is also visible in STEREO A and B coronograph images. We estimate
its speed around 700 km/s. The X1.1 flare was also associated with a
minor proton event: the > MeV proton flux exceeded the 10 pfu
threshold at 04:00 UT and is now gradually decreasing again. A number of

low M-flares was also observed during the past 24h originating in the
same active region. We expect more flaring at M-level, with a chance for

another X-flare.
Geomagnetic conditions were at active levels (K=4, Kp=5) between 21 and

24 UT on July 6th in response to the CME activity in the previous days.

The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field went down

to -10 nT while the solar wind speed jumped to 500 km/s. Currently, we

are experiencing quiet geomagnetic conditions but geomagnetic activity

is expected to increase later today or early tomorrow, when we expect
the arrival of the ICME associated to the M1.8 flare on July 4th. A
glancing blow from the CME associated to the X-flare is also possible
around 12 UT on July 9th. We expect unsettled (K=3) to active (K=5)
geomagnetic conditions in the coming days.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 095, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20707 1251/ 06///
10156 21583 3018/ 4//// 80409 91020
99999

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania 
NOAA NOTE
06  1024  1029 1032 S17W42 M1.8 1N                                  99 
1515                     
06  1326  1330 1332 S20W45 M1.2 SF    55 III/2                         
 99 1515                     
06  1848  1855 1905 S18W51 M1.3 SF                                  99 
1515                     
06  2301  2308 2314 S13W59 X1.1      520 V/3,III/2,II/3                
 99 1515 Location from SolarSoft
07  0310  0315 0323 S17W51 M1.2 SF                                  99 
1515                     
END

UGEOR 30512 20707 1251/ 07/06 07110
10004 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50020 60005 44218 02000
10005 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50030 60004 13410 00000
10006 2//// 3//// 472// 50060 60003 24414 01000
10008 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 25614 01000
10009 2//// 3//// 4552/ 50500 60032 26917 01000
10010 2//// 3//// 472// 50030 60001 26712 01000
10011 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60003 32120 01000
10012 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 24922 01000
10096 2//// 3//// 472// 50080 60001 46616 01000
10099 2//// 3//// 4552/ 50680 60050 35415 29930
99999
USSPS 32404 06073 10922 41017 45515 2/801 43060 33918 54525 45003 
43018 2/802 46005 15009 21302 47008 25916 2/801 48015 34813 21307 
49006 27918 2/801 
USSPS 21305 06159 14732 42018 46116 2/801 43016 35513 31307 44059 
34517 54541 46001 43719 0/102 47002 14111 1/802 48010 24315 2/802 
49029 27316 54410 50001 27323 0/102 
USSPS 81202 06043 17832 44018 45315 2/803 47001 44020 0/102 48005 
42720 11304 49004 15009 11303 45026 34713 51411 46104 33918 47660 
50004 25815 1/801 52002 28112 1/801 51011 27517 54403 
USSPS 81202 07016 13432 49002 13519 11304 50004 24716 1/801 51051 
26916 31513 52012 27013 31303 46053 35017 34522 45012 35813 31405 
48002 44019 11303 44022 46317 2/803 
USSPS 31405 07061 20142 04002 44218 01205 05003 13410 21304 06006 
24414 2/903 08001 25614 0/101 09050 26917 54532 10003 26712 2/901 
11001 32120 01203 12001 24922 0/101 96008 46616 2/901 99068 35415 
55550 
UMAGF 30503 20707 1004/ 06062 1/029 22234 34422 
UMAGF 31523 20707 ///// 0600/ 1/018 22323 33444 
UCMEO 93001 20707 0550/ 20706 62312 80342 2371/ 236// 323// 41912 
20706 62303 82321 35318 11515 1112/ 99999 PLAIN 
 
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