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OK0NAG > SOLAR    09.07.12 15:51l 137 Lines 5244 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Jul 09 1346 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                       #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#


GEOALERT BRU191
UGEOA 30512 20709 1151/ 9930/
12092 21092 37092
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 09 Jul 2012 until 11 Jul 
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jul 2012  10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 031
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jul 2012  10CM FLUX: 172 / AP: 026
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Jul 2012  10CM FLUX: 164 / AP: 008
COMMENT: The main source of solar activity, NOAA 11515, is currently on

the West limb, so we expect the X-ray background, the flaring activity

and the F10.7 flux to decrease strongly in the next 48 hours. GOES
proton flux levels have marginally crossed the event threshold (>10 pfu

for > 10MeV) around 00:00UT this morning, presumably as a consequence of

the strong west limb CME of yesterday evening. Continued enhanced proton

fluxes are possible as NOAA 11515 continues erupting (on are behind the

West limb). Meanwhile also geomagnetic activity is enhanced since
yesterday evening, with values NOAAs estimated Kp values at 4-5,
probably as a consequence glancing blow from the CME associated to the

X-flare on July 7.



TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 090, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20709 1151/ 08///
1//// 21781 3015/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania 
NOAA NOTE
08  0541  0546 0552 S17W65 M1.3 SF                                     
1515                     
08  0944  0953 0957 S21W67 M1.1 1F       III/1                         
    1515                     
08  1206  1210 1213 S21W69 M1.4 1F                                     
1515                     
08  1623  1632 1642 S17W74 M6.9 1N   640 V/2,III/1,II/2                
    1515                     
END

UGEOR 30512 20709 1151/ 09/08 09107
10005 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50020 60006 10710 00000
10006 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50070 60013 21814 00000
10009 2//// 3//// 4552/ 51220 60054 24017 15200
10013 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 22612 00000
10014 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50060 60014 22718 00000
10015 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60002 12714 00000
10099 2//// 3//// 4522/ 50060 60008 38115 29521
99999
USSPS 32404 08085 08732 43057 36718 51606 46002 12110 21402 47007 
23115 2/801 48005 37912 2/801 49109 25215 57616 50001 25423 0/101 
USSPS 21305 08178 09742 43012 38413 2/801 44052 37418 57508 47002 
11911 1/804 48008 23015 21304 49137 25015 57630 
USSPS 81202 09015 14432 45015 38515 31304 46048 37713 34510 50011 
22117 21302 51121 23918 57665 52005 24313 2/801 49001 11209 0/202 
USSPS 31405 09086 16842 05002 10710 01206 06007 21814 21313 09122 
24017 55554 13001 22612 0/101 14006 22718 22314 15001 12714 0/102 
99006 38115 25508 
UMAGF 30503 20709 1004/ 08060 1/035 21333 33453 
UMAGF 31523 20709 ///// 0800/ 1/015 22224 33334 
INDAA 20702
1/033 03304 60240 60046 03300 8/035
2/016 01601 20390 16046 01202 0/022
3/016 03301 60160 25009 00500 8/016
4/012 01200 80330 46038 02002 4/024
5/012 01601 20160 24059 06006 0/032
6/016 01201 60120 08009 02001 2/013
7//// ///// ///// ///// ///// /////
END
 
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